France – Real estate: recent developments and outlook for 2019
The housing market should remain upbeat in 2019. Demand should be sustained by low lending rates and structural support factors. The market should see neither a bubble nor a sudden collapse. Yet, after an outstanding year in 2017, the market should continue to slow down gently. Transactions should thus see a slight decline in 2019 (-4% over 12 months in pre-owned, -6% in new-build) and the rate of increase in prices should slow towards 2%.
Germany – Scenario 2019-2020: moving towards a normalised growth rate
In Germany, GDP growth slowed markedly in 2018 (+1.5% annual average, after +2.5% last year). Activity should conserve a moderate growth rate of +1.3% in 2019 and the following year. German growth will continue to be driven by robust domestic demand, fuelled by both private consumption and investment. External demand will nevertheless continue to weigh on growth but to a lesser extent.
France – 2019-2020 Scenario: more dynamic purchasing power but growth slowdown confirmed
In France, growth has slowed significantly compared with the previous year. Following the publication of the Q3 GDP figure, the growth carryover came out at 1.5% in 2018, compared with 2.3% in 2017. Q1 was effectively disappointing, with growth then firming up slightly in Q3. That said, it is likely to return to a more modest rate at the end of the year, largely due to the effects of the Gilets Jaunes crisis. Going forward, we are forecasting a likely similar annual growth rate in 2019, of 1.6%.
Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: plenty of twists and turns to negotiate cautiously
It might be smarter to use the multiple and multifarious risks facing us to draw up an alarmist scenario. Economies are undoubtedly slowing down, but still in a very uneven way. The Eurozone seems to be looking for its second wind, Japan is struggling to boost domestic demand and Chinese growth is likely to disappoint at the start of the year; however, the US should see another year of prosperity. In 2019, growth rates should continue to slow, accompanied by measured monetary tightening and a very modest increase in risk-free interest rates.
World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic & financial forecasts
Aperiodic - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts
France – What are the economic consequences of the Gilets Jaunes crisis?
The "Gilets Jaunes" crisis affects growth in Q4 2018, revised to +0,2% qoq from +0,4%. In the face of this crisis and the demands of the "Gilets Jaunes", two sets of social support measures were announced. These two sets of measures, which represent around €10 billion, will result in a significant additional gain in purchasing power of 0.7% in 2019. Consumption will be more sustained, and GDP will increase more strongly than initially forecast, +1,8% yoy in 2019. However, the deficit-to-GDP ratio is revised upwards significantly for 2019, from 2.8% to 3.3%.
China – Beyond the financial risk
Chinese debt has been a major topic over the past few years. And not without reason, as it entails a risk of financial instability that is real, despite the existence of buffers. But possibly overly much so, to the point of overshadowing the rest. However, beyond the financial risk, there are also other risks, questions and uncertainties, linked to the recent political and institutional developments, as well as the deterioration of relations with the United States.