World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: The end is not yet nigh
Despite tightening financial conditions in the US and a possible worsening of trade tensions, a cyclical downturn is not imminent. The heady days of simultaneous expansion are, however, now well and truly over. Growth is still running high in the US and remains vigorous in the Eurozone after a temporary loss of impetus, though it looks set to recede in the emerging economies – the first region to suffer from the killer combination of a rising dollar, rising US interest rates, and growing fears of protectionism.
World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic and financial forecasts
This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.
Italy – Economic climate: Economy still resilient in Q1 2018
Italian economic growth moderately slowed in Q1 2018, against a backdrop of a marked deceleration in the European cycle. That backdrop had an adverse effect on the contribution from foreign demand, but domestic demand was still robust. For banks, both asset quality and profitability improvement have continued to improve, but the new government has disrupted this more upbeat context.
France – Competitiveness and market shares
France is showing symptoms of a competitiveness gap. These include the loss of share of French exports in world exports and the persistent trade deficit. They reflect poor export performances and robust imports. With very few exceptions, foreign trade has contributed negatively to growth in France since the early 2000s.
Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest
Highlights: What is to be done with the Balkans, Europe's enfants terribles? Is there a risk of a hard landing in Turkey? Saudi Arabia's authorities are concerned by the sharp rise in unemployment. Moody's has downgraded Angola's sovereign debt rating by a notch. In India, victory leaves a bitter taste. Argentina is playing an old, hopeless and costly game.
France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019
The housing market saw a record year in 2017. We do not feel it likely that the market will overheat in 2018-2019. On the contrary, a slight dip is forecast. For one thing, the gradual refocusing of the Pinel buy-to-let scheme and the PTZ interest free housing loan on areas of housing shortages is forecast to cut new-build sales by 9% in 2018. Secondly, the gradual increase of lending rates combined with rising home prices will nibble away at households' ability to buy and make buyers more hesitant and wait-and-see.
Europe – Foreign trade – Trade war: the price to be paid
The announcements concerning the Trump administration's trade policy present a serious challenge for the European Union. If it fails to bring the US back to the WTO's negotiating table, the European Union could either enter into bilateral negotiations, or lodge a complaint with the WTO in order to obtain compensation. Both options carry a cost, be it having to renounce multilateralism, or face an escalation of the trade conflict with the US.