Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020: plenty of twists and turns to negotiate cautiously
It might be smarter to use the multiple and multifarious risks facing us to draw up an alarmist scenario. Economies are undoubtedly slowing down, but still in a very uneven way. The Eurozone seems to be looking for its second wind, Japan is struggling to boost domestic demand and Chinese growth is likely to disappoint at the start of the year; however, the US should see another year of prosperity. In 2019, growth rates should continue to slow, accompanied by measured monetary tightening and a very modest increase in risk-free interest rates.
World - Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: Economic & financial forecasts
Aperiodic - Tabular data for Crédit Agricole economic and financial forecasts
France – What are the economic consequences of the Gilets Jaunes crisis?
The "Gilets Jaunes" crisis affects growth in Q4 2018, revised to +0,2% qoq from +0,4%. In the face of this crisis and the demands of the "Gilets Jaunes", two sets of social support measures were announced. These two sets of measures, which represent around €10 billion, will result in a significant additional gain in purchasing power of 0.7% in 2019. Consumption will be more sustained, and GDP will increase more strongly than initially forecast, +1,8% yoy in 2019. However, the deficit-to-GDP ratio is revised upwards significantly for 2019, from 2.8% to 3.3%.
China – Beyond the financial risk
Chinese debt has been a major topic over the past few years. And not without reason, as it entails a risk of financial instability that is real, despite the existence of buffers. But possibly overly much so, to the point of overshadowing the rest. However, beyond the financial risk, there are also other risks, questions and uncertainties, linked to the recent political and institutional developments, as well as the deterioration of relations with the United States.
France – Pensions: The state of play and future reform issues
The reforms in the 2000s warded off the risk of a severe deterioration in the pension systems deficit. The financial balance, which is currently close to equilibrium, is likely to remain so in the short term. It is felt to be positive in favourable scenarios, but would again go into deficit, by 1-1.5% of GDP a year from 2030 in the more cautious scenarios. A new pensions reform has been announced whose prime objective is to roll out a universal regime that would be clearer and fairer. It would still be a pay-as-you-go system but would shift completely to a points-based regime.
France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019
After an exceptional year in 2017, the housing market has again been sustained in 2018, but is not showing any signs of a bubble or overheating. On the contrary, signs of cooling have been growing, with a slight dip in sales of pre-owned homes, a more marked drop in sales of new-build homes, and a slowdown in prices and mortgage lending. In 2019, the market will continue to slow very gently, with a slight fall-off in transactions and a slowdown of housing prices.
Italy – Economic environment : Under pressure
The impact of external risk factors materialised in the first half, leading to a more emphatic slowdown in the Italian economy than other European countries. Activity increased by 0.2% in the second quarter, hampered by the decline in foreign demand, albeit less pronounced than at the start of the year. Internal demand contributed positively to growth thanks to private investment, which should remain strong through end-2018.