France – Housing Market: Recent developments and outlook for 2018-2019
After an exceptional year in 2017, the housing market has again been sustained in 2018, but is not showing any signs of a bubble or overheating. On the contrary, signs of cooling have been growing, with a slight dip in sales of pre-owned homes, a more marked drop in sales of new-build homes, and a slowdown in prices and mortgage lending. In 2019, the market will continue to slow very gently, with a slight fall-off in transactions and a slowdown of housing prices.
Italy – Economic environment : Under pressure
The impact of external risk factors materialised in the first half, leading to a more emphatic slowdown in the Italian economy than other European countries. Activity increased by 0.2% in the second quarter, hampered by the decline in foreign demand, albeit less pronounced than at the start of the year. Internal demand contributed positively to growth thanks to private investment, which should remain strong through end-2018.
Germany - Scenario 2018-2019: Heading for a growth slowdown
After a year of sustained growth in 2017, Germany is now on the path of an expected slowdown of GDP at 1.9% this year and next. Germany benefits from solid domestic demand, driven by the dynamism of private and public consumption. Investment, although weakened by lower margins resulting from higher wage costs, remains the second factor supporting this growth. Net exports, on the other hand, will subtract a few points from GDP growth because of the acceleration of imports compared to exports.
France: 2018-2019 Scenario
The first half was marked by a certain desynchronisation among the main economic regions. Growth remained upbeat in the United States and fairly stable in the eurozone, while some emerging countries experienced specific difficulties. In France, the growth outlook has been revised down slightly. After 2.3% growth in 2017, we are forecasting further fairly robust growth in 2018 and 2019 at 1.6% a year.
Italy – Public Finance : 2019 budget, a European challenge
All eyes are glued to the 2019 draft budget. The power struggle between the Economy Ministry and the leaders of the two governing parties was won by the latter. Finally, the deficit will definitely rise to 2.4% in 2019, but will fall to 2.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. We will, therefore see a fiscal expansion next year, but the fiscal stance will subsequently become neutral once more. The long march towards a cancellation of the structural deficit will then resume from 2022.
World – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019: "And yet it moves"
There are plenty of genuine causes for concern. Some threats are still looming, and it is difficult – if not illusory – to assign a probability to them and give them tangible consistency; others have already taken shape. The global economy is proving quite resilient. Nevertheless, even before these threats have a tangible influence on the real economy, their effects are being felt in financial variables and expectations.