Hervé Goulletquer, Head of FIM research, discussed the economic outlook. His diagnosis combines the need to rebalance global growth and to reassess the rules of economic policy. In a weak growth environment, central banks must redefine monetary policy.

 

Presentations on currencies and commodities followed.
Daragh Maher, Deputy Head of global forex strategy, presented his currency market forecasts. He envisions pressures easing on the U.S. dollar in the second half of 2009, after which the dollar may weaken much more next year than the consensus now expects. The euro is likely to strengthen against the “uncertain” dollar and yen.

 

Christophe Barret, oil analyst, and Robin Bhar, metals analyst, summarised the outlook for the oil and gold markets. Record prices and deep economic recession have contributed to a sharp falloff in demand for oil. Despite very weak demand, oil prices continue to garner support from OPEC’s significant production cuts. Gold remains an attractive asset in an uncertain world.

 

Jean-François Perrin, asset allocation analyst, presented our new asset allocation product designed to help our professional investor clients (asset managers, hedge funds and financial institutions) to carry out their investment strategies.

 

The participants wrapped up their presentations with a focus on the heightened volatility of global growth. The challenge for banks and governments will be to decipher a world that has grown much more complex.

 

With more than 30 analysts, FIM research specialises in currencies, interest rates, commodities, emerging markets and asset allocation as well as the macroeconomic outlook. They work closely with Crédit Agricole’s research teams. This year, FIM’s forex research placed second among 60 banks’ teams in Reuters FX Forecasting Accuracy Poll’s June ranking.