The FIM Asia ex-Japan research team organised a roadshow on "Asia Outlook and Strategy 2010". This roadshow was successfully held from January 20th to 28th, 2010 in six Asian cities: Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai and Seoul. This year’s theme was “Eastern Promises”. During the roadshow, FIM Research representatives shared their views with a total of 649 clients on following topics:

• “U”, “V” or “W”. What shape will the global recovery take?
• USD in 2010: rebound or collapse?
• The importance of timing “Exit Strategies” correctly.
• Asian markets decoupling… really?
• China: the next bubble to burst?
• CNY appreciation in 2010: how strong?

Mitul Kotecha, Head of Global Foreign Exchange Strategy, said, "2010 is likely to see further signs of recovery but our forecasts only look for a sub-par pace of growth due to the many impediments that remain in place. We look for 2.9%, 1.6%, and 1.2% GDP growth in the US, Japan and Eurozone, respectively in 2010. Unconventional policy measures will be unwound over the course of 2010. However, actual increases in policy rates will be slow. We expect the Fed and BoJ to begin raising interest rates in Q2 2011 whilst the ECB is expected to move earlier, in Q4 2010. We expect further rate hikes over the course of 2011, with official rates expected at 1.50%, 0.5%, and 3.00%, in the US, Japan and Eurozone, respectively by end 2011. After a strong start to the year we look for the USD to lose ground over Q1 2010 but to recover more strongly in H2 2010. The year overall will be positive for yield / commodity currencies such as AUD and NZD and negative for funding currencies such as the JPY and CHF."

Sebastien Barbe, Head of Emerging Markets Research and Strategy, said, "We expect the Asian recovery to moderate on a QoQ basis, but growth will accelerate on a YoY basis in 2010. We see Asia ex-Japan accelerating from 5.7% in 2009 to 7.2% in 2010 (excluding China: from -0.3% in 2009 to 4.5% in 2010). China will likely continue to tighten monetary policy, in order to limit overcapacity and to cap domestic asset prices, while keeping growth at about 9% in 2010-11. The CNY appreciation could resume in H1. As a sign of the financial disconnection between Asia and the US, we expect most Asian central banks to hike rates before the Fed. We expect most Asian currencies to continue appreciating on favourable balances of payments and increasing carry attractiveness. Our favourite picks: INR and KRW. There are two main risks to this scenario: (i) a double-dip in the US in H2 would hurt Asia strongly and (ii) an early Fed hike would hit Asia equity markets and currencies."