Find out all Crédit Agricole CIB's information on real time : latest deals, leagues tables, awards, flash... And every month, our special report on an current subject.
Credit Research presents its outlook and strategies for 2012
On December 15, 2011, Credit Research held a morning meeting bringing together clients and the media at the hotel Le Bristol in Paris. Approximately 100 guests attended the presentation which was followed by several workshops.
Jean-Paul Betbèze, Chief Economist and Head of Economic Research at Crédit Agricole S.A. opened the session with his views on the macroeconomic situation: "The sovereign debt and banking crises: the current situation and exit scenarios".
Credit Strategist Harpreet Parhar and Quantitative Strategist Guillaume Thomas presented the responses given by strategy and quantitative analysis: "Credit strategy: how to play the major themes of 2012 - peripherals vs. core, cyclicals vs. non-cyclicals".
Following these presentations, the attendees took part in the following workshops:
- Financials and Covered Bonds
- Banking sector, by Elisabeth Van Sante, Financials Analyst with Credit Research, and Cyril Meilland, Head of the European Banks research team at CA Cheuvreux.
Equity and credit approaches to the sector in order to assess risks and opportunities combined with the approach of a considerably strengthened regulatory environment.
- Covered Bonds, by Florian Eichert, Senior Covered Bond Analyst with Credit Research.
In 2011, covered bonds were the only sources of wholesale funding for many banks. However, the market was shaken by sovereign volatility and agency interventions. In 2012, will covered bonds be able to live in harmony with the expectations of issuers, investors and regulators?
- Cyclicals
- Automobiles, by Nicholas Harrison, Auto Analyst with Credit Research.
Are OEMs ready for a decline relative to 2008? The gap between high-end carmakers and the rest seems likely to remain a key subject in the automotive sector.
- Industrials, by Caroline Brugère, Industrial Analyst with Credit Research, and Nicolas Hue de la Colombe, Capital Goods / Consumer Analyst.
Stuck between anemic growth and recession, will industrial companies be able to avoid ratings downgrades or obtain desired improvements? What lends value to the bond market faced with agencies’ caution?
- Non-cyclicals
- Utilities, by Damien de Saint-Germain, Utilities Analyst with Credit Research.
Discouraging economic prospects and the sovereign debt crisis: differentiated impact for utilities. Certain utilities will have to modify their financial policies (investments, dividends) or their business models, at the risk of moving into uncharted territory.
- Telecoms, by Jean-François Paren, Head of Credit Research.
The sector’s financial flexibility has reached a low since 2003 and many worries (macroeconomics, investments, regulations and refinancing) will depress the sector in 2012. Agencies and issuers are expecting a year of transition leading to an exit from the crisis. What is the likelihood of this scenario?