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09/16/2011 / FLASH / HUNGARY

2011 Budapest Business Boat: "The Eurozone crisis and Hungary: still vulnerable?"

2011 Budapest Business Boat:

On September 7th, the 'Zsófia' motorboat hosted the client event of Crédit Agricole CIB in Hungary for the fourth Budapest Business Boat. The audience had the opportunity to listen to the analysis of Guillaume Tresca, Crédit Agricole CIB emerging market strategist, and to the leaders of the embassies of the United Kingdom and France in Hungary. They shared their views on the following topics: the 2012 budget, the effects of the slowing growth of the German economy, the possibility of a growing tendency of risk aversion, and the significance of Hungary's potential to attract foreign capital.

The 200 guests were welcomed by Tamás Molontay, Senior Country Officer of the Crédit Agricole CIB branch in Hungary.

The view of an emerging market strategist


Guillaume Tresca, emerging markets' analyst started: "Hungary is vulnerable to the Eurozone debt and economic issues, but the government is committed to the deficit targets, and there is an increasing recognition of the signs of better crisis management. Hungary is not Greece".

According to him, the Eurozone problems have also shown that the political leaders are nevertheless capable of taking the necessary steps. They have prepared new tools and there is a chance to see further implementation. New measures are definitely feasible technically, therefore, it is unlikely that debt rescheduling becomes necessary in the Eurozone. Hungary, however, is not immune to the ouzo infection, due to the absence of domestic demand, its exposure to the European slowdown and the Hungarian banking system's leverage level, which makes Hungary sensitive to risk aversion. Currently, Germany seems to be losing momentum temporarily.

After this elaboration, Guillaume Tresca came to the conclusion that: "Under these circumstances, Hungary’s overall rating and the government bond yields may be determined by its internal politics, and by the effects of external factors until the end of 2012. The 2012 budget and its parliamentary debate are of key significance, as is the totally unpredictable risk aversion".

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The analysis of United Kingdom Ambassador and French economic counsellor


After Guillaume Tresca’s presentation, the United Kingdom Ambassador to Hungary Greg Dorey pointed out that the export-sensitive nature of the Hungarian economy can be viewed not only as a vulnerability factor, but also as a potential opportunity. He added: "What is important in this context is how the country prepares for the growth that will follow the crisis, and how it will be able to attract significant foreign investment and working capital". In Ambassador Dorey’s view, anti-multinational business rhetoric sends a negative message abroad, as do unpredictable changes in policy and the relative lack of a dialogue between the government and the business sector. This is already scaring off potential investors and reinvestment by existing investors. Such factors are damaging Hungary’s regional competitiveness (as shown by the latest World Economic Forum league table). 

Like the British Ambassador, French economic counsellor Jean-Claude Bernard also stressed the importance of improving competitiveness. According to him, the solid reforms and a 5 % - 6 % current annual economic growth rate in the Baltic states prove that reforms that are painful in the short term but result in real structural changes are, in fact, highly beneficial and profitable. He added: "The exports of the new automotive plants including Mercedes and the strengthening of its circle of Hungarian suppliers can compensate on the short run for the absence of domestic demand in the country’s GDPGross Domestic Product (GDP) is defined as the total market value of all final goods and services produced within the country in a given period of time (usually a calendar year). GDP is one of the key measures of national income and output for a given country's economy. growth next year. This model could be used in the future broadly for the inclusion of Hungary and its small and medium size businesses in the European economy through an influx of working capital. However, for this, Hungary’s potential to attract foreign capital needs to be improved."
Jean-Claude Bernard concluded that Hungary urgently needs to launch its structural reforms program in order to restore a better confidence in the markets and improve its competitiveness towards compared to Poland and to the Czech Republic.

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