Jean Paul Betbèze delivered a speech entitled “Will Europe fall apart?”. At the end of the 45-minute presentation, the analyst came to the conclusion that ‘Europe’s falling apart’ is by no means imminent, and the old continent may even emerge from the crisis as a winner. The condition for this is that the European Union should not join the ’Who is able to support its export with a weaker currency?’ contest, because instead of growth in export, this would mean an increasing inflationary pressure for many countries of the region. According to Jean-Paul Betbèze, Europe should think for the longer run instead of such short-term solutions and set feasible goals for a time span of ten years, because the only way to stabilise markets and the exchange rate of the euro is to offer such clearly managed expectations.

“If we have no quick solutions for getting out of the crisis – and we do not – it is reasonable to focus on stability and equilibrium while strengthening co-operation between Member States and innovation, because only a high added value and its export can strengthen Europe in the world”, said Jean-Paul Betbèze.

“Although Hungary is not Greece, the country is highly exposed to the anomalies of global economy and German growth” concluded Guillaume Tresca in his lecture. He believes that although Hungary has a high volume of debt, the budget is in a more favourable condition than those of most European countries; its primary balance shows a surplus while deficit goals may be maintained by additional government measures.

The current situation is not similar to 2008, either, because foreign exchange reserves are currently much higher – at nearly EUR 30 billion – and the current balance of payments shows a surplus. Nevertheless, we cannot rest assured because the HUF is extremely exposed to the developments and mood swings in foreign markets. It is easier to slip into an evil cycle where dangerous communication by the government continues to make markets nervous. This will impede the National Bank of Hungary in reducing interest rates and may even imply a hike, which would ultimately further weaken the economy.