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2009 Budapest Business Boat: Old days won't come back
On August 27th, a hot day of late summer, many of the bank's clients and business partners gathered to the annual business event organised by Calyon's Hungarian subsidiary.
Calyon Hungary's CEO, Tamás Molontay, opened the event. In his speech, he declared the event aimed to offer a balanced view about the current state of the Hungarian and world economy.
View of an analyst from Calyon in London
In his presentation, Stuart Bennett, Calyon’s chief analyst, said that Hungary is over the worst, but there are still risks remaining. The economy seems to be stabilising, but at a very low level. Investors are expected to focus on rapidly developing regions and economies. Therefore Hungary has to convince investors that the bad days are over.Regarding the future, Stuart Bennett opined fiscal consolidation will be unavoidable and he projected a low GDPGross Domestic Product (GDP) is defined as the total market value of all final goods and services produced within the country in a given period of time (usually a calendar year). GDP is one of the key measures of national income and output for a given country's economy. and decreasing inflation rate, but also gradually recovering trust for Hungary in 2010.
The analyst said that Germany is the primary destination of Hungarian exports; Hungary’s future depends on the speed of Germany’s recovering from the crisis. He said that Europe is predicted to get back on a track of growth only slowly, which is no good news for Hungary.
At the same time, it is also possible that in the future, investors will focus on positive signs such as the budget deficit which is becoming relatively low in international comparison.
Panel discussion
Stuart Bennett’s presentation was followed by a panel discussion with the participation of leading Hungarian analysts: Tamás Vojnits (Oriens), János Samu (Concorde Securities), István Hamecz (OTP Fund Management) and Balazs Koranyi, the moderator (Thomson Reuters).
Opinions showed a mixed outlook. As regards the future, the analysts agreed that the 2010 budget will be decisive. The participants of the discussion considered the monetary policy and the recent interest rate cut as positive. They also warned that the monetary policy is opportunistic and moves on a track determined by the markets.
Talks while cruising on the Danube
